What happened
The Chief Economist's September Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts Australian resource and energy export earnings to reach $422 billion in 2026–27, up from $403 billion in 2025–26. Export revenues are then projected to fall to $391 billion in 2027–28 and $379 billion by 2030–31 as iron ore and thermal coal prices soften, while copper exports expand due to AI and grid demand.
Why it matters here
Resource exports account for a substantial portion of ASX earnings and federal tax receipts. Declining earnings in bulk commodities like iron ore and coal could weigh on high-yielding mining blue-chips and government revenue. Conversely, structural growth in copper and alumina offers selected opportunities for resource investors as global electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure demand expand over the next five years.
What to watch
The release of subsequent quarterly export reports and global commodity price trends, particularly iron ore demand from Chinese steelmakers and copper usage in global AI data centre expansions.
Source
industry.gov.au