What happened
Market data based on ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures indicated an 86 per cent probability that the RBA will leave the cash rate at 4.35 per cent at its 29 September 2026 meeting, with a 14 per cent chance of a hike. However, implied probabilities shift to a 67.2 per cent chance of a rate increase by December 2026.
Why it matters here
Futures pricing reflects growing market expectations that sticky domestic inflation could force the Reserve Bank to resume rate hikes before the end of the year. Australian fixed-income and equity investors must factor in potential late-year monetary tightening when managing cash holdings, bond duration, and equity market exposure.
What to watch
Upcoming monthly ABS Consumer Price Index releases and labour force updates published prior to the Reserve Bank Board's 29 September 2026 meeting.
Source
centralbank.watch