S&P/ASX 2008,765.3+0.09%All Ordinaries8,956.2+0.06%S&P 5007,764.70+1.49%Nasdaq27,122.09+2.26%AUD/USD0.7123+0.02%RBA cash rate4.350.00%Gold4,381.00-0.99%Brent crude95.96-3.35%

Macro

Major Banks Tipping RBA Cash Rate Increase Next Week

Australian investors should prepare for tighter monetary conditions as all four major domestic banks now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to 4.60 per cent at its upcoming September board meeting.

What happened

The Reserve Bank of Australia board meets on September 28 and 29 to decide the cash rate target, currently sitting at 4.35 per cent. Following recent upside inflation risks and July CPI rising to 3.5 per cent, Commonwealth Bank and other major lenders brought forward their forecasts for a 25 basis point rate increase. RBA leadership signalled that inflation risks are materialising.

Why it matters here

Another rate hike will directly increase variable mortgage repayments and lift borrowing costs across the economy. Higher cash rates compress valuation multiples for growth assets while making defensive income yields like cash and short-dated paper relatively more attractive. Portfolio managers should reassess gearing and interest coverage across listed equity holdings.

What to watch

The RBA Monetary Policy Board decision and rate announcement on Tuesday, 29 September.

Source

commbank.com.au

Also in this edition

S&P/ASX 200

8,765.3

▲ 0.09% · +7.5

All Ordinaries

8,956.2

▲ 0.06% · +5.2

S&P 500

7,764.70

▲ 1.49% · +114.20

Nasdaq

27,122.09

▲ 2.26% · +599.55

AUD/USD

0.7123

▲ 0.02% · +0.0002

RBA cash rate

4.35

— 0.00% · 0.00