What happened
The September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts Australia's resources and energy export earnings to rise to $422 billion in 2026–27 from $403 billion in 2025–26, before easing to $391 billion in 2027–28. Long-term earnings are projected to fall to $379 billion ($343 billion real terms) by 2030–31 as energy prices normalise.
Why it matters here
Iron ore export earnings are projected to fall from $123 billion in 2025–26 to $107 billion in 2026–27. However, expanding global AI data infrastructure and electrification will boost copper earnings to $19 billion by 2030–31, while critical minerals surge to $26 billion this year, led primarily by lithium.
What to watch
Upcoming quarterly trade figures tracking Chinese steel production alongside global electric vehicle battery manufacturing data for demand confirmation.
Source
industry.gov.au