What happened
The September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts Australian resource export earnings to reach $422 billion in 2026–27, up from $403 billion in 2025–26. Earnings are projected to decline to $391 billion in 2027–28 and $379 billion by 2030–31. LNG earnings will jump 27% to $70 billion, whereas iron ore revenues will fall from $123 billion to $107 billion.
Why it matters here
Resource exports generate a significant share of national revenue, corporate tax, and mining dividends in Australia. While elevated energy and LNG prices provide a short-term boost, falling long-term prices for thermal coal and iron ore pose headwinds for major miners. Expanding demand for copper, driven by AI data centres and grid electrification, offers an offset for diversified resource investors.
What to watch
Look for official quarterly export volume releases and global energy supply updates as Middle East geopolitical tensions dictate short-term commodity price swings.
Source
industry.gov.au