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Commodities

China Coking Coal Supply Shock Expected to Persist

Chinese coking coal import demand will stay elevated into 2027 due to ongoing mine closures, providing long-term structural export support for Australian metallurgical coal producers.

What happened

Bloomberg Intelligence reports that supply disruptions stemming from May's fatal Shanxi mine accident will linger into 2027. Despite a 4 per cent drop in August imports to 13.1 million tonnes, Chinese coking coal imports were up 29 per cent year-on-year. A Mysteel survey showed 75 mines remain closed across Shanxi, removing nearly 73 million tonnes of annual capacity.

Why it matters here

Prolonged internal production deficits in China force steelmakers to rely heavily on sea-borne imports from Australia, Mongolia, and Russia. For Australian coal miners, sustained import demand helps floor metallurgical coal pricing, backing cash flows and dividend capacity over the medium term.

What to watch

Shanxi mine safety inspection outcomes and Chinese monthly import volume updates through Q4.

Source

marketindex.com.au

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