What happened
Analysis of ABS June quarter 2026 lending data by Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee revealed that investor loans for new homes rose by 441 to 10,923, while loans for established dwellings dropped by 7,080 to 40,647. Overall investor lending commitments fell 8.6%. New housing accounted for 21.2% of investor loans, driven primarily by investors retreating from existing properties rather than building new dwellings.
Why it matters here
Federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax aimed to steer private capital into residential development. However, the drop in established property lending without a matching surge in new home construction threatens future dwelling completions and tightens rental supply. Property investors face higher entry friction, while reduced credit commitments risk stalling broader housing sector activity and developer project viability.
What to watch
Upcoming Australian Bureau of Statistics building approvals data and quarterly housing finance figures to determine whether new residential construction starts recover or continue contracting.
Source
mpamag.com