S&P/ASX 2008,845.7+0.44%All Ordinaries8,975.7+0.40%S&P 5007,690.73+0.41%Nasdaq26,430.89+1.11%AUD/USD0.6949+0.37%RBA cash rate4.600.00%Gold4,181.10+0.26%Brent crude109.86+3.72%

Macro

Rising Unemployment Eases Immediate Pressure for RBA Rate Hikes

Higher unemployment provides a buffer against near-term interest rate increases, but persistent inflation risks mean mortgage holders and investors should remain prepared for ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.

What happened

Australia's unemployment rate reached a five-year high of 4.7% in September, exceeding market forecasts of 4.6%. Total employment contracted by nearly 40,000 jobs during the month. The jobless figure now sits above the Reserve Bank of Australia's December quarter target of 4.5%. The cash rate remains at 4.6% as markets evaluate the likelihood of a policy adjustment at the upcoming November meeting.

Why it matters here

The weakening labour market aligns with the central bank's objective to cool economic activity and curb sticky inflation. Lower employment growth reduces the immediate probability of another cash rate hike on Melbourne Cup day, offering relief to variable-rate mortgage holders. However, if inflation figures remain elevated despite rising joblessness, the RBA may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer.

What to watch

Public addresses by RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser this week for policy guidance ahead of the November interest rate decision.

Source

au.finance.yahoo.com

Also in this edition

S&P/ASX 200

8,845.7

▲ 0.44% · +39.0

All Ordinaries

8,975.7

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S&P 500

7,690.73

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Nasdaq

26,430.89

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AUD/USD

0.6949

▲ 0.37% · +0.0026

RBA cash rate

4.60

— 0.00% · +0.25