What happened
In its September Interim Economic Outlook, the OECD projected global GDP growth at 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.0 per cent in 2027. While size resilience and AI investments cushioned initial shocks, elevated oil prices, refining bottlenecks, and 15-year high long-term interest rates are moderating near-term momentum across major developed economies.
Why it matters here
Australian export-oriented sectors depend heavily on global demand stability. While global GDP growth remains resilient, higher long-term bond yields globally signal that borrowing costs will remain structurally higher, restraining cross-border capital flows and valuation expansion for international portfolios.
What to watch
US-China bilateral trade discussions and upcoming quarterly global inflation metrics.
Source
oecd.org